New Jersey Republicans enter Election Day staring down a 300,000-vote early-ballot deficit—yet history and momentum make a Ciattarelli comeback not just possible, but probable.
Democrats have unleashed an unprecedented early-voting surge, capturing 50.6 percent of the 1.33 million ballots cast in the first phase. Republicans, by contrast, trail at 28.9 percent—even as GOP registration climbs and the conservative base steels itself for a last-minute push.
This gap mirrors the 2021 contest, when Jack Ciattarelli closed a similar early-vote disadvantage to within three points of then-incumbent Phil Murphy. On Election Day, Ciattarelli obliterated expectations and nearly pulled off a historic upset.
Republicans have whittled the statewide registration gap from 1.1 million in August 2021 to just 853,000 today. That narrowing tidal wave of new GOP voters will surge to the polls on Tuesday, powered by relentless ground operations and an energized conservative electorate.
Monmouth County, long a Republican stronghold, recorded an 800-ballot Democratic edge in early in-person returns. In 2024’s high-turnout cycle, the GOP led there by 8,400 votes at the same point. That swing signals one thing: complacency is the Democrats’ only path to victory.
Mail-in returns tell the same story: Democrats hold 61.9 percent of ballots returned; Republicans trail at 20.8 percent. Four years ago, Democrats commanded 62.7 percent—so the GOP share has inched higher while Dems slip.
Ciattarelli’s campaign has maintained laser focus on early-vote turnout, plastering buses with “Vote Early In-Person Oct. 25–Nov. 2” and mobilizing door-to-door networks in every county. The message is clear: no voter left behind.
Democrats answered with heavy hitters—former President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Schumer all piled into New Jersey. But national leftist elites can’t hide Sherrill’s record of tax hikes, rising crime and underperforming schools.
RealClearPolitics polling gives Sherrill a 3.3-point lead in the aggregate. Those numbers reflect early returns, not the tidal wave of Republican Election Day ballots yet to arrive. Polls rarely capture a last-day conservative surge.
History favors the underdog GOP. In 2021, Ciattarelli began trailing by 277,000 early ballots and still cut Murphy’s margin to under 2 points. This time, a slimmer gap and larger Republican roster set the stage for an even bigger comeback.
New Jersey voters reject one-party rule. They’ve had enough of record property taxes, stagnating wages and rising violent crime. Ciattarelli’s message—lower taxes, safer streets, accountable government—resonates where it matters most: in living rooms and diners across the state.
Tuesday’s result will hinge on a single factor: who turns out. The Democrats’ early-vote margin is a challenge, not an inevitability. Republicans are locked, loaded and ready to flip every county that matters.
Expect a red tsunami on Election Day. Jack Ciattarelli will ride it straight into the governor’s mansion.
