New Jersey’s Republican gubernatorial candidate trails by a single point in a state where Democrats once enjoyed a 16-point edge. That seismic ten-point swing marks the most dramatic shift in Garden State politics in decades—and it puts Republican Jack Ciattarelli within striking distance of victory.
In New Jersey, Atlas Intel’s latest poll shows Mikie Sherrill up just 50-49. One point separates a GOP nominee who has energized working-class, suburban and Hispanic voters from a congresswoman counting on her party’s complacent base.
This race hinges on the return of Trump’s coalition. In 2024, Hispanic and non-white, blue-collar communities turned New Jersey purple for the first time in memory. If they show up again, Republicans win. If they stay home out of protest, Democrats coast.
Over in Virginia, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears faces a 7-to-15-point deficit against Abigail Spanberger. Every RealClear poll pins Spanberger above 50 percent—a stubborn floor few challengers ever clear.
Yet this race isn’t unwinnable. The scandal roiling Democrats’ attorney general nominee, Jay Jones, has been whitewashed by a biased media. Jones bragged about wishing physical harm on a GOP leader—and Democrats let him off the hook. That double standard can’t survive a big turnout.
Spanberger also enjoys a more than two-to-one spending advantage. Money talks in politics—but so does momentum. If Republicans mobilize rural southwest Virginia, hold the line in Hampton Roads and depress urban-suburban Democratic turnout, a late surge becomes possible.
Here’s the bottom line: Democrats vote no matter what the polls say. Republicans fold when numbers look bleak. We must reject defeatism. We must show up—and we will win.
Tuesday’s contests are more than governor’s races. They’re a referendum on Republican energy and resolve. Get to the polls. Deliver the victory.
