US Business Activity Soars: October Sees Second-Fastest Growth of 2025
The U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders as business activity growth surged in October, marking the second-fastest rate this year. That’s right: we are witnessing the largest increase in new business registrations to date. This is not just a blip; it’s a clear sign of robust economic vitality.
Both services and manufacturing sectors have outperformed expectations in the preliminary data for October. Services lead the charge, reinforcing the notion that American ingenuity and persistence are driving our economy forward.
According to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, October’s flash PMI data underscore strong economic growth as we step into the fourth quarter. Business activity is gaining momentum across both manufacturing and services, showing resilience even in the face of challenges like the government shutdown.
The survey data indicates the economy is poised to expand at an impressive annualized rate of 2.5% in October, following similar growth in the third quarter. These figures reflect a solid foundation for American businesses and signal a clear path ahead.
However, let’s not sugarcoat everything. There’s a discernible shadow on the horizon. Confidence among business leaders has dipped, reaching one of its lowest points in three years due to hesitations surrounding government policies—including tariffs—that could stifle growth. Companies are also grappling with disappointing export sales, especially in manufacturing. Many are left with an unprecedented amount of unsold inventory after stockpiling inputs earlier in the year to mitigate the impact of tariffs.
Williamson also stated a critical point regarding inflation: despite rising input costs driven by tariffs, average selling prices have declined to their lowest since April. Firms are fiercely competing for sales, and that’s driving prices down.
The takeaway? Solid indicators from the data are encouraging, but the looming uncertainty demands vigilance. The economy is moving forward, but we must remain aware of the challenges that threaten this momentum. We’ve shown resilience before, and with the right policies, we can harness this growth into a sustainable economic future.
