Steel Is Non-Negotiable

Let’s be blunt: the strength of a nation hinges on its steel production. Without it, you forfeit military might, industrial capacity, and ultimately, sovereignty. Steel isn’t just a material; it’s the backbone of any thriving economy. From weapons to vehicles, every cornerstone of power relies on this fundamental resource. Ignore this reality at your peril.

As Europe grapples with mounting geopolitical tensions, a critical reevaluation of industrial strategy is imperative. Hybrid warfare, supply chain manipulation, and economic statecraft are overtaking traditional diplomatic methods. The lines between military strategy and market dynamics are disappearing, and nations need to adapt swiftly to maintain global standing.

The misguided financial support for U.S. soybean farmers, as reported by Treasury Secretary Bessent, underscores the growing challenges within agricultural trade. Since China halted its purchases of U.S. soybeans in May, farmers have been left hanging, turning instead to Brazil and Argentina for sales. No doubt, this situation represents a failure in U.S. agricultural policy that demands immediate attention.

In the oil markets, Brent crude recently dipped to $64 per barrel, its lowest point in months, due to signals from OPEC+ regarding potential supply increases. With rising outputs from Brazil and Guyana, there’s a looming oversupply crisis. Although China’s stockpiling has mitigated immediate price declines, market sentiment is bearish for Q4 2025 and beyond. We expect U.S. production to be the bedrock of price support, but don’t count on prices rebounding. Our forecasts indicate a stark decline, averaging $61 in early 2025—no good news for the average American consumer.

Surprisingly, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown hasn’t rattled financial markets. Stocks are inching upwards, Treasuries remain stable, and the dollar is holding firm. But beneath this calm facade, significant risks are brewing. President Trump is endorsing the Project 2025 agenda, which includes serious cuts to federal jobs. This may be a mere tactical maneuver for negotiations now, but permanent layoffs could send consumer confidence plummeting.

The latest Challenger report reveals that hiring intentions have fallen significantly, with only 117,000 planned hires compared to 403,000 last year. Retail and transportation sectors are particularly skittish with the holiday season approaching. Though planned job cuts have decreased, the labor market is stagnant—a dangerous combination that spells potential doom. Revelio Labs reports a modest increase in September employment, but overall, the outlook remains murky at best.

In today’s economic climate, uncertainty prevails. Buckle up; navigating this landscape requires strong leadership and decisive action. Anything less risks undermining everything that makes America great.