President Donald Trump’s victory in the last election revealed a startling reality: he made significant gains among Hispanic and African-American voters, traditionally seen as strongholds of the Democratic Party. Even more striking, however, is the surge in support from Muslim voters, a trend that reflects a seismic shift in the political landscape of America.
Trump’s share of the Muslim vote skyrocketed from 17% in 2020 to 31% in the most recent election. This remarkable increase can be attributed primarily to the Biden administration’s controversial support for Israel’s actions in Gaza, alienating Muslim and Arab voters across critical battleground states. In Michigan, a state with a large Arab and Muslim community, dissatisfaction with Biden’s failure to advocate for a ceasefire pushed many to support Trump, third-party candidates, or abstain from voting. This is particularly notable given Trump’s past calls for a ban on Muslims entering the country.
It’s crucial to understand that the Democratic Party’s dominance over Muslim voters is a relatively recent phenomenon. Historically, Muslim Americans inclined toward the Republican Party until the War on Terror initiated by George W. Bush in 2001 fostered a climate of suspicion and surveillance against them, driving many into the arms of Democrats.
However, the latest developments indicate that Muslim Americans are not a monolithic group, and there is a burgeoning opportunity for political realignment. The rise of populist voices within the Republican Party has created a fertile ground for outreach to diverse communities, including Muslims who are disillusioned with the current trajectory of Democratic leadership.
This evolution within the conservative movement is evident in how some factions are reassessing American involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While Republicans generally maintain a strong pro-Israel stance, a growing number of young conservatives express skepticism about continual support for Israel and the risk of further entanglement in Middle Eastern conflicts. This shift has captured the attention of Muslim Americans who oppose military actions in the region.
Within conservative circles, there’s a noticeable divide. Although some politicians still resort to anti-Muslim rhetoric, voices like Tucker Carlson are beginning to challenge this narrative. The political utility of such divisive language is waning, signaling a potential path forward to reduce hostilities and foster dialogue.
To explore the future of potential alliances between Muslim Americans and conservatives, we must also recognize the rise of identitarianism and Christian nationalism within the GOP. While some white identitarian conservatives perceive Muslims as invaders enabled by liberal immigration policies, the reality in America tells a different story. Muslims, who make up just over 1% of the U.S. population, have largely integrated successfully into society, with a majority being second-generation Americans. They have arrived through legal immigration, contrasting sharply with the narratives of mass migration often portrayed.
Christian nationalism presents its own challenges. Many within this movement view Muslims as threats to Judeo-Christian values. However, the shift in attitudes among younger conservatives away from unconditional support for Israel hints at a reevaluation of evangelical conservatism’s rigid stances on Islam.
It is essential to acknowledge that MAGA conservatives are unlikely to align with left-leaning Muslim Americans who oppose core conservative principles. Nonetheless, recent trends indicate that Muslim voters are politically diverging from their elected officials, who typically lean left. Increasingly, ordinary Muslim Americans are asserting their values, joining conservatives in protests against ideologically controversial topics.
While the political trajectory of Muslim Americans remains uncertain in the post-Trump era, emerging evidence suggests that collaboration is possible. The 2024 election demonstrated that unlikely alliances can form, paving the way for a broader rapprochement between conservatives and Muslims. A deeper investigation into American conservatism’s evolution and Muslim American political behavior reveals that meaningful cooperation is not just a fantasy—it’s an achievable reality.
