Hezbollah is in turmoil. Facing significant military losses and shifting geopolitical realities, this once formidable militant group is contemplating a radical disarmament strategy. This raises alarm bells, not just for Lebanon, but for the entire region.
In an aggressive display of solidarity with Hamas, Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel began the very day after the October 7, 2023, invasion. However, this escalated confrontation backfired dramatically. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) responded decisively with devastating airstrikes and an invasion that crippled Hezbollah’s operational capacity. Notably, in September 2024, Israel launched a stunning assault on Hezbollah, utilizing explosive-laden pagers to inflict severe casualties. The result: nearly 3,000 injured and the assassination of long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Following a ceasefire in November that ended the recent conflict, Hezbollah has transferred military responsibilities in southern Lebanon to the Lebanese Armed Forces and relinquished weapons depots. Now, the leadership is wrestling with the possibility of surrendering its most dangerous arsenal of missiles and drones—only if Israel withdraws its troops from the region. Hezbollah intends to retain lighter weapons but is clearly on the back foot.
Israel continues to target Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. The IDF recently executed its largest strikes since the ceasefire, claiming to have disrupted crucial underground operations linked to Hezbollah. As part of an ongoing campaign, Israeli forces have conducted near-daily operations, blatantly undermining Hezbollah’s standing even amidst a supposed ceasefire.
Compounding its woes is the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, which has severed critical supply lines to Iran—Hezbollah’s primary backer. Earlier this year, Lebanon’s government took decisive action by banning flights to Tehran, further isolating Hezbollah at a critical moment.
This past month confirmed Hezbollah’s decline. The group stood idly by during Israel’s recent conflicts with Iran, opting to voice condemnation rather than take aggressive military action. Once boasting a staggering arsenal of over 130,000 missiles, Hezbollah’s inaction raises questions about its potency as a military force.
The internal dynamics within Lebanon cannot be ignored. The Lebanese government is pushing for a disarmament that challenges Hezbollah’s dual role as a military entity and political force. Continuously dragging Lebanon into conflict with Israel has fostered resentment among its Lebanese rivals, who demand a return to a state monopoly on arms.
If Hezbollah’s potential disarmament becomes reality, the consequences for the Levant will be profound. The group has oscillated between being a protector of Lebanon and a catalyst for violence, leading to widespread destruction. The coming months will reveal whether this shift signals a more stable future or another chapter of turmoil for Lebanon.
